University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Results
University of Iowa News Releases
UI Hawkeye Poll: Huckabee gaining; Clinton and Obama battling for top spot
Mitt Romney continues to hold a strong lead in Iowa among candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination. But Mike Huckabee's Iowa numbers -- buoyed, perhaps, by growing support among Evangelical Christians -- have jumped significantly since August, putting him in a near-tie with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, according to a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll of likely GOP caucus-goers.
Despite Giuliani's lead in most national polls, Romney holds a strong lead in Iowa at 36.2 percent, with Giuliani second at 13.1 percent, Huckabee third with 12.8 percent and Thompson fourth at 11.4 percent. John McCain has 6.0 percent.
In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, meanwhile, a slip in John Edwards' numbers has allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their grips on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. Among all likely Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Obama with 26.6 percent, Edwards with 20.0 percent, Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.
These results are from a random, statewide poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa conducted Oct. 17 through 24. The Republican sample consists of 285 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percent. The Democratic likely caucus-goer sample consists of 306 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percent. Respondents in both samples were asked to name the candidate they would support if the caucus were today.
David Redlawsk, director of the UI Hawkeye Poll and associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, said the Republican results show that Romney is continuing to build on his solid lead among respondents who indicated that they plan to participate in the Republican caucus, regardless whether they're committed to going or just thinking about it.
“We see no differences between these two groups and no candidate catching up to Romney, who had added more than 8 points to his August lead,” Redlawsk said.
At the same time, he said the move by Huckabee is notable, as the former Arkansas governor received the support of fewer than 2 percent of Republican caucus-goers in the August poll, which was taken immediately before the Iowa Straw Poll.
“Huckabee's bounce from the Iowa Straw Poll remains evident as he moves into a virtual tie with Giuliani for second place with Thompson right behind them,” Redlawsk said. “McCain has shown some rebound from August, but he remains far behind in Iowa.”
On the Democratic front, after declining between March and August, Clinton's support has returned to March levels among likely caucus-goers while Obama's support has also increased. Edwards, on the other hand, continues to see a decline in the number of likely caucus-goers who say he is their candidate.
“Much of Clinton's strength comes from her support among women,” Redlawsk said. “She leads with 33.0 percent of women, compared to Obama's 26.5 percent and Edwards' 16.8 percent. But the order reverses with men, where Obama leads 26.7 percent to Edwards at 25 percent and Clinton at 22.5 percent. How well Clinton will actually do depends greatly on the mix of women and men who actually show up to caucus.”
NOTE: Detailed analysis of the Republican and Democratic polls follow. To view top-line data from the polls and a PowerPoint report, visit http://www.uiowa.edu/election/.
---
2008 caucus candidate support among Republicans
Romney lead strong; Huckabee moves up; others remain flat
Romney's lead in Iowa has continued to grow since March. In the latest poll, he receives support from 36.2 percent, up from 27.8 percent in August and 16.9 percent in March.
Redlawsk identified three trends in the Republican race in addition to Romney's increasing support. First, neither Giuliani nor McCain has recovered from their dramatic March-to-August decline, when McCain dropped from 20.9 percent to 3.1 percent and Giuliani from 20.3 percent to 11.7 percent. McCain ticked up in October to 6 percent but remains far behind. Giuliani's support was nearly unchanged at just over 13 percent. Second, Republican caucus-goers are beginning to make candidate choices. “Don't know” responses -- 23 percent in March and 27 percent in August --declined to just shy of 15 percent in October. Third, the beneficiary of this decline appears to be Huckabee, the only candidate besides Romney to see strong gains from August to October.
“It's clear Romney is the one to beat in Iowa,” Redlawsk said. “His support is now nearly triple his nearest competitor. He leads among all demographic groups including religious conservatives and is especially strong among the older voters who tend to be most likely to attend a caucus. At the same time, Huckabee is developing a following among Evangelical Christians which may allow him to make a strong showing at the caucus.”
---
Huckabee support from Evangelicals
While Romney leads in all demographic groups, there is evidence Huckabee is becoming a focus for Evangelical Christians. Caucus-goers who say they are “born again” or “Evangelical” are much more likely to support Huckabee than are those who are not. Huckabee is a strong second to Romney with this group, 21.2 percent to 29.2 percent, respectively. Among Republicans who do not consider themselves Evangelical, Huckabee receives only 6.4 percent, while Romney has 41.1 percent.
About 44 percent of Republican caucus-goers consider themselves born again or Evangelical, but they appear no more or less likely to caucus than those who do not. “If Huckabee can motivate religious conservatives to attend the caucuses in large numbers, he may well threaten Romney and close some of the overall gap,” Redlawsk noted.
---
Republicans less engaged than Democrats
One of the challenges in polling for the Iowa Caucuses is in finding likely caucus-goers, who represent less than 20 percent of party members on caucus night. In this cycle it is especially difficult to identify Republicans planning to attend their caucus. “While searching for likely caucus-goers in a poll is a bit like finding a needle in a haystack under normal circumstances, Republicans seem significantly less engaged in this cycle than Democrats, despite having a very competitive national race,” Redlawsk said. “By all our measures, Republicans are less engaged: For example, only 31 percent of Republicans say they are excited by the campaign, compared to 42 percent of Democrats. This is one indication that Republicans are not connecting as much to their candidates.”
Other measures confirm this point. About 72 percent of Democrats say have thought quite a lot about the campaign, compared to 66 percent of Republicans. Thirty percent of Democrats are following it very closely, versus 22 percent of Republicans. Moreover, it was harder to identify Republican caucus-goers in the sampling process. Of the registered voter contacts, 35.0 percent were Democrats, 31.9 percent were Republicans and 33.1 percent were neither party, broadly representative of Iowa party registration. But of those remaining in the caucus-going sample, 58.6 percent said they will attend the Democratic caucus and 41.4 percent said they will attend the Republican caucus, reflecting a significantly greater difficultly in identifying Republicans who say they may caucus.
***
2008 caucus candidate support among Democrats
Democratic race tight among likely caucus-goers
After trailing in earlier UI Hawkeye Polls, Clinton now leads among likely Democratic caucus-goers with 28.9 percent – a gain of 4.1 percent since August. Her lead is slim, only 2.3 points over Obama, who sits at 26.6 percent -- a boost of 7.3 percent since August. Edwards has 20.0 percent, a 6 percent drop since August. Richardson's August surge appears to have retreated, from 9.4 then percent to 7.2 percent now. Biden registered above 2 percent in the Hawkeye Poll for the first time, receiving 5.3 percent from likely caucus-goers. No other candidate reached 2 percent. A total of 8.9 percent are undecided, a decrease of more than 5.5 percent since March.
--
Edwards, Clinton supporters more likely than Obama supporters to caucus
Among Democrats, Edwards and Clinton supporters are significantly more likely than Obama supporters to say they are very likely to attend their caucus. Of Edwards supporters, 62.3 percent say they are “Very Likely” to caucus, as do 60.2 percent of Clinton supporters and 48.1 percent of Obama supporters. In 2004, 46.4 percent of Obama supporters did not caucus, compared to 42 percent of Clinton supporters and only 24.5 percent of Edwards supporters.
“Obama is clearly relying heavily on those who do not caucus regularly,” Redlawsk said. “If we only look at caucus-goers who are almost certain to attend, we find that Edwards makes up the gap with Obama and Clinton moves clearly ahead. Women will be the key to a Clinton victory; for Obama, getting people who are less likely to caucus out the door in January will be critical.”
---
Gender and age play big role
Significant gender and age differences appear in support for the Democratic candidates. Clinton does well among women, as she has from the beginning. At the same time, her support among men is not nearly as strong. The result is a “gender gap” in October of nearly 11 points, as 33 percent of women and 22.5 percent of men support Clinton. The opposite is true for Edwards, who is much more heavily supported by men (25 percent of men, 16.8 percent of women). Obama, however, gathers equal support from both men (26.7 percent) and women (26.5 percent).
Obama's strongest supporters are younger. Looking at three age groups, Democratic caucus-goers under 45 are much more likely to support Obama than any other group. About 41 percent of this group supports Obama, compared to 19 percent for Clinton and 16 percent for Edwards. Among those older than 60, however, Clinton leads with 31 percent, Obama has 24 percent and Edwards has 17 percent support.
“The gender and age patterns of support are particularly striking,” Redlawsk said. “It is not surprising that Clinton has stronger support among women, but the gender gap is quite large at 11 percent. And clearly Obama's message of reaching across the aisle and working together, combined with the rhetoric of hope he employs, resonates especially with younger caucus-goers. However, for Obama, the real risk is that these folks will not show up to caucus, since historically caucus-goers have been significantly older than the population as a whole.”
---
Democrats remain more satisfied with choices, less likely to change minds
Democrats are satisfied with their choices, but Republicans remain much less happy about their options. Only 10.9 percent of Republican caucus-goers are satisfied, while more than 40 percent of Democrats are. Likewise, only 9.4 percent of Democrats are "not satisfied," compared to 19.3 percent of Republicans.
The percentage of Republicans who are very satisfied has declined since August, even with Fred Thompson joining the race. In August, 16.1 percent were very satisfied, compared to the 10.9 percent now.
Despite Romney's lead, the race remains somewhat fluid among Republicans. In addition to the nearly 15 percent of Republicans who do not have a candidate preference, many say they remain at least somewhat likely to change their mind. Nearly 61 percent are somewhat likely to change, while another 8.4 percent are very likely. Only 28.9 percent say they will not change.
"While Romney is clearly in the lead, there may yet be room for change in the Republican race in Iowa,” Redlawsk said. “Nearly two-thirds of Republicans either have no preference or support someone other than Romney, and most seem open to changing their minds. Even so, the Romney campaign is strong here, and his most likely direct challenger, Huckabee, has a long way to go to mobilize enough Christian conservative support to offset Romney's broad-based strength.”
Among Democrats, 39.6 percent say they are not at all likely to change their minds on who to support, up from 33.6 percent in August. While 57.5 percent of Democrats now say they are somewhat or very likely to change their mind, this is down from 65.2 percent in August, indicating that while the race remains fluid, Democratic caucus-goers are now beginning to settle on their choices. Only 7.9 percent say they are very likely to change.
"The Democratic campaign is beginning to settle down, which suggests that while Biden and Richardson in particular have made some gains over the last few months, the room for making more gains is slowly becoming limited." Redlawsk said. "Democrats are satisfied with their options, more motivated to turn out to caucus, and are becoming less uncertain about who they will support."
---
Obama supporters remain most likely to change minds
As in August, the poll points to challenges for Obama. Only 32.1 percent of Obama supporters say they are not at all likely to change their mind, compared to 42.3 percent of Edwards and 52.3 percent of Clinton supporters.
“In addition to Obama's challenge of getting his supporters out to caucus, he also has supporters who appear more likely to be considering other candidates,” Redlawsk said.
---
Clinton supporters not interested in Al Gore
Democratic caucus-goers were asked how likely they would be to support former Vice President Al Gore if he were to run for president. Across the sample, 19.6 percent said they would be very likely to support Gore, putting him among the top tier. Another 34.5 percent said they would be somewhat likely to support Gore. Fewer than half (43.3 percent) said they would not support him.
Current Clinton supporters are significantly less likely to support Gore, with only 8.1 percent saying they would be very likely to do so. More than 1 in 5 Edwards and Obama supporters (Edwards, 21.7 percent; Obama, 23.4 percent) say they would be very likely to support Gore.
“The latent support for Al Gore suggests that caucus-goers who do not support Clinton remain open to an alternative to their current candidate,” Redlawsk said. “Gore has made clear he is not interested in running, but there's clearly a base of potential support in Iowa if he were to change his mind.”
--
Sample characteristics
Caucus sample: Of the caucus-goers sample, 53.3 percent were Democrats, 40.7 percent were Republicans, and 6.0 percent were independents. (In Iowa, independents may caucus for either party as long as they register for that party on caucus night.) 69.3 percent of the full caucus sample is married, and 58 percent is female. Just over half -- 54.3 percent -- of the sample said they would attend a Democratic caucus, 38.3 percent a Republican caucus and 7.4 percent were undecided about which party's caucus to attend and were not included in analyses.
---
David Redlawsk and Caroline Tolbert, associate professors of political science, conducted the Hawkeye Poll with graduate students James Rydberg and Howard Sanborn, and undergraduate student Brigid Feymuller, all of the UI. The poll was carried out with the cooperation and facilities of the UI Social Science Research Center directed by Sociology Professor Kevin Leicht. The UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the UI Office of the Provost provided funding for the poll.
**************************************************************************
Iowa caucus-goers say Iraq War, terrorism top issues in new UI Hawkeye Poll
Iowa Democratic caucus-goers say the war in Iraq is the most important issue when considering their 2008 Presidential vote, while terrorism tops the list of issues for Republican caucus-goers, according to a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today.
Republican and Democratic caucus-goers also differ greatly in the importance they attach to other policy issues, such as immigration, health care and moral issues.
“It is clear that Republican and Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa are interested in and responding to different issues,” said David Redlawsk, director of the poll and associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. “This may well reflect the different rhetoric by the candidates of the two parties. Republicans rarely focus on the war in Iraq, preferring to talk about keeping America safe from terrorists, while Democratic candidates are all emphasizing the war, along with health care and the economy.”
These results are from a random, statewide poll of caucus-goers in Iowa conducted Oct. 17 through 24. The Republican caucus sample consists of 285 caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percent. The Democratic caucus sample consists of 306 caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percent.
---
Top issues for Iowa caucus-goers
Respondents were told “I am going to read a list of issues. Please tell me which ONE is the most important to your vote for president in 2008” and given a list of 11 issues (order was randomized): terrorism, the Iraq War, the economy, gay marriage, abortion, immigration, health care, energy policy, the environment/global warming, agricultural policy and education.
---
Democratic caucus-goers
The war in Iraq is the most important issue to likely Democratic caucus-goers by a wide margin, with 34.9 percent of caucus-goers identifying it as the most important issue. The second most important issue is healthcare at 23.2 percent, followed by the economy at 15.8 percent. Rounding out the remaining issues are education (6.7 percent), the environment (5.7 percent), energy policy (2.4 percent), immigration (2.4 percent), terrorism (1.7 percent), abortion (1.4 percent), agricultural policy (1.4 percent), and gay marriage (.7 percent), while 1.3 percent responded “don't know” and 2.7 percent responded “other”.
“Democratic candidates have spent a lot of time on healthcare, making it no surprise that voters see it as an important issue,” Redlawsk said. “At the same time, if voters were not already concerned about health care, candidates would not have been talking about it.”
Candidate support is conditioned in interesting ways on the top three issues. Among Democratic caucus-goers who feel the Iraq war is the most important issue, 38.2 percent supported Clinton (followed by Obama at 23.5 percent). Healthcare-oriented voters also support Clinton (32.8 percent) followed by Edwards at 23.9 percent. Edwards leads among Democrats who indicated that the economy is the most important issue, polling 29.8 percent to Obama's 23.4 percent.
“While Edwards rightly claims he was the first with a detailed healthcare plan, Clinton is the preferred candidate for those who say this is most important, although Edwards does do better with this group than he does overall,” Redlawsk said. “For Obama, the challenge is that while he focuses on his opposition to Iraq and challenges Clinton on her vote for the war, she maintains a strong lead among those who say this is the most important issue.”
---
Republican caucus-goers
Among Republican caucus-goers, terrorism is the most important issue at 21.9 percent. The economy is second at 15.8 percent, followed by the Iraq war (15.5 percent), and immigration (13.7 percent). Rounding out the remaining issues are health care (9.7 percent), abortion (7.2 percent), education (4.0 percent), energy policy (2.9 percent), gay marriage (2.9 percent), agricultural policy (1.4 percent), and the environment (1.1 percent), while 2.2 percent responded “don't know” and 1.8 percent responded “other.”
“Republicans are also responding to the messages of their candidates,” said Redlawsk. “Where Democrats focus on Iraq, Republicans talk about terrorism and security; the result is that voters also focus on that issue.”
In contrast to the Democrats, whose support differed by issue, Republicans consistently favor Romney regardless of which issue is considered the most important, reflecting his overwhelming frontrunner status. Among caucus-goers most concerned with terrorism, 33.3 percent supported Romney, followed by Fred Thompson at 18.3 percent. Romney does even better among those concerned about Iraq, with 46.5 percent support, followed by Giuliani at 18.6 percent. Romney also fares better among those focused on immigration, where 47.4 percent support Romney, followed by Fred Thompson at 10.5 percent. Finally, 30.2 percent of those indicating the economy is most important support Romney, followed by “don't know” at 27.9 percent.
“Romney's lead is so strong that issues do not affect it all that much,” said Redlawsk. “What's more interesting is that Giuliani is not doing better among those focused on terrorism or Iraq, given his focus on national security issues.”
---
The importance of immigration, gay marriage and abortion in 2008
Along with naming the most important issue for the 2008 election, respondents were asked how important a candidate's position on the issues of immigration, gay marriage and abortion was to their vote for president in 2008. These questions tapped the level of interest beyond simply being the “most important” issue.
Likely Republican caucus-goers found all three issues to be of significant importance. For immigration, 13.4 percent indicated it is the “most important” issue, while 52.5 percent say it is “very important” and 29.2 percent say it is “somewhat important.” For gay marriage, while only 2.8 percent say it is the “most important” issue, 38.5 percent said it was “very important” and 25.8 percent said it was “somewhat important.” Finally, for abortion, 7.1 percent indicated it is the “most important” issue, 37.5 percent say it is “very important” and 33.9 percent call it “somewhat important” to their vote choice.
Democratic caucus-goers find these same three issues to be of much less importance. For immigration, only 2.3 percent indicate it is the “most important” issue, another 32.1 percent say it is “very important”, and 50.8 percent say it is “somewhat important”. For gay marriage, less than 1 percent call it the “most important” issue, 12.9 percent say it is “very important” and 26.9 percent say it is “somewhat important.” Finally, for abortion, 1.3 percent call it the “most important” issue, 30.1 percent say it is “very important” and 36.6 percent say it is “somewhat important.”
---
Attitudes towards immigrants and immigration policy
Caucus-goers of both parties were asked about their preferences on what “government policy should be regarding undocumented immigrants currently residing in the United States” and given four choices: 1) deport all undocumented immigrants, 2) allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited time, 3) allow undocumented immigrants to become citizens if they meet criteria like learning English and paying their back taxes or 4) allow undocumented immigrants to become permanent residents with no requirements. The third option of allowing citizenship with requirements is commonly thought of as “earned citizenship”. As was the case in both the March and August Hawkeye Polls, Iowa caucus-goers continue to prefer the “earned citizenship” option, with 66.9 percent of Democrats and 51.7 percent of Republicans choosing this option. Another 29.7 percent of Republicans support deportation, compared to only 14.7 percent of Democrats. A guest worker program is the preference of 16.5 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats. Few support permanent residence without restrictions (2.2 percent of Republicans and 6.5 percent of Democrats.) There has been little change for either party since August despite all of the discussion of immigration.
When asked who is “most responsible” for the current immigration situation, caucus-goers of both parties blame “employers who hire undocumented immigrants” with 57.3 percent of Democrats and 49.2 percent of Republicans placing the blame on employers. Responsibility was placed on “immigration policies established by the federal government” by 28.5 percent of Democrats and 31.3 percent of Republicans, and on “the undocumented immigrants who come across our borders” by 14.5 percent of Democrats and 19.5 percent of Republicans.
“It is telling that Iowa caucus-goers do not actually blame the immigrants living among them, instead believing business and the federal government are to blame,” said Redlawsk. “Iowans apparently understand why these immigrants come here, even if they are concerned about the issue. The fact that just about a majority of both parties supports earned citizenship suggests that those who are focusing on a hard line on immigration do not have very fertile ground in Iowa.”
---
Sample characteristics
Caucus sample: Of the caucus-goers sample, 53.3 percent were Democrats, 40.7 percent were Republicans, and 6.0 percent were independents. (In Iowa, independents may caucus for either party as long as they register for that party on caucus night.) 69.3 percent of the full caucus sample is married, and 58 percent is female. Just over half -- 54.3 percent -- of the sample said they would attend a Democratic caucus, 38.3 percent a Republican caucus and 7.4 percent were undecided about which party's caucus to attend and were not included in analyses.
David Redlawsk and Caroline Tolbert, associate professors of political science, conducted the Hawkeye Poll with graduate students James Rydberg and Howard Sanborn, and undergraduate student Brigid Feymuller, all of the UI. The poll was carried out with the cooperation and facilities of the UI Social Science Research Center directed by Sociology Professor Kevin Leicht. The UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the UI Office of the Provost provided funding for the poll.
