3:20 pm ET, June 13, 2012
The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty quotes a covey of Democratic strategists on background suggesting that the insular Obama campaign is in trouble and making a mistake by failing to change course. Tumulty has impeccable news judgment, which means it is a lock that the people she quotes are senior and heavyweight.
In the normal meta-narrative of a presidential campaign, when things are going badly, talk of change fills the air. The least extreme move is to change tactics. A more extreme move is to change strategy. The most extreme move is to change senior personnel.
Not surprisingly, there is no sign of any such response from Team Obama at this point. Despite all the politico-media hand-wringing, the President is still, by many measures, the favorite to win. We will get some post-Obama-slump poll numbers soon, for sure, but for now, the re-elect effort is chugging along with a fine chance to prevail. Given the sustained grim unemployment numbers and the wrong-track mood of the nation, one could easily imagine the President behind in this race, and he’s not. So why shake things up?
But there are other reasons, more particular to Obama and his team, that make any major course change unlikely: