McCain Camp Memo on Indiana, North Carolina Results

To: Interested Parties

From: Rick Davis, Campaign Manager

Date: May 7, 2008

Re: Recent Results in Indiana and North Carolina, impact on the campaign

The competitive nature of the Democratic Primary contests has provided our campaign with a deep pool of data about the primary electorate in a wide variety of states. We have taken some time to analyze this data and have gleaned some interesting details from the data that may impact the general election in the fall.

While the press is reporting on Republican crossover voting in the Democratic primaries, they are missing the real story: John McCain has nearly 20% support among Democratic voters. A recent analysis by Public Opinion Strategies shows that all major publicly released surveys reflect similar data. Across all major surveys released recently, there is significant support for McCain among Democratic voters.

ü The latest CBS-NY Times survey shows that 18% of Democrats are defecting to McCain when matched up with Senator Obama, while McCain loses just 10% of Republicans to Senator Obama.

ü McCain is attracting an unusually high level of crossover voters. We looked at our merge data from the first quarter of 2004 (N=6,300 interviews), which showed that President Bush was getting only 9% of Democrats at this same point in that race. McCain is surpassing those levels against both Democrats.

If and when Senator Obama becomes the official nominee, Democratic Primary voters may not form a tight coalition immediately. Data to date suggest Democratic Primary voters will not blindly support Senator Obama.

· True in North Carolina: Among North Carolina Democratic Primary voters interviewed in exit polls, 18% of the Democrats surveyed said they would vote for John McCain in a race against Senator Obama. This 18% is overwhelmingly driven by Senator Clinton's supporters: 84% are Senator Clinton supporters – that's roughly 15% of those who voted in the Democrat Primary.

An additional 6% say they wouldn't vote – again, dominated by Senator Clinton's supporters: this group represents 5% of the Democratic Primary population.

ESTIMATED BALLOT DROP-OFF AMONG DEMS IF SENATOR OBAMA IS THE NOMINEE: 20%

Of the 29% of North Carolina Democratic Primary voters who would not be satisfied if Senator Obama was the nominee – 89% were Senator Clinton voters – roughly 26% of the Democratic Primary population.

· True in Indiana: Among Indiana Democratic Primary voters interviewed in exit polls, 18% say they'd vote for John McCain against Senator Obama. 88% of those supported Senator Clinton in the primary. This represents approximately 15.6% of Democratic Primary voters.

And, an additional 8% say they would not vote, again driven by Senator Clinton's supporters (98%). This coalition represents about 8% of the Democratic Primary population.

ESTIMATED BALLOT DROP-OFF AMONG DEMS IF SENATOR OBAMA IS THE NOMINEE: 24%

Of the 33% of Indiana voters who would not be satisfied if Senator Obama was the nominee – 95% were Senator Clinton voters - roughly 31% of the Democratic Primary population

· True in Pennsylvania: Among Pennsylvania's Democratic Primary voters, 15% say they would vote for John McCain. Senator Clinton supporters drive the McCain vote: 90% of Democrats who would support John McCain against Senator Obama were Senator Clinton's base there – roughly 13.5% of the Democratic Primary electorate.

And, 6% say they wouldn't vote – these are also largely Senator Clinton's supporters (98%).

ESTIMATED BALLOT DROP-OFF AMONG DEMS IF SENATOR OBAMA IS THE NOMINEE: 20%

Again, the 35% of Pennsylvania Democratic Primary voters who would be dissatisfied if Senator Obama was the nominee are dominated by Senator Clinton's supporters (95%). This group is roughly 33% of the Democratic Primary population.

· True in Ohio: Since the Ohio Democratic primary coincided with the Ohio Republican primary, the exit poll did not include a general election ballot. However, the exit poll among Ohio Democratic Primary voters showed 32% would be dissatisfied if Senator Obama were to become the nominee. And, not surprisingly, 94% of those who would be dissatisfied were Senator Clinton supporters, again representing 30% of the Dem primary voters.

Against this complicated backdrop on the Democratic side, John McCain has strengthened his strong support among Republican voters. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey shows that John McCain wins better than 80% of the vote among Republicans – against either candidate. Against Senator Clinton, McCain wins 89% of Republicans and only 8% of Republicans defect to support Senator Obama. This is before we have even begun the general election cycle.

And, he continues to perform well among Independent swing voters. The same NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows a significant lead for John McCain against either opponent. Against Senator Obama, McCain leads 46% to 35% among Independents, and McCain leads 46% to 32% among Independents against Senator Clinton.

John McCain over-performs the generic Presidential ballot – and has the capacity to overcome the challenging political environment faced by all Republican candidates this election cycle. According to the same NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, only 33% of voters would support the Republican Presidential candidate compared to 51% for the Democrat. John McCain routinely bests that number, with ballot scores in the mid-40% range. This is a clear indication that voters see him in a different light than the rest in a challenging political environment.