HALPERIN'S TAKE: What John McCain Needs to Win

What McCain needs to win:

Stuff he can't control:

--For Obama to make a substantive mistake on his overseas trip that changes the vector direction of the coverage — especially while he is in Israel.

--For Obama to suffer a Dukakis-in-the-tank, Kerry-windsurfing, Obama-bitter-in-San-Francisco moment that has huge symbolic value in underscoring the doubts about his being commander in chief and his relatability to average Americans.

--For Obama to pick a running mate who doesn't vet, who gets caught up in scandal, and/or who says stupid things.

--For gas prices to fall consistently starting Labor Day (or sooner).

--For Osama bin Laden to be captured in a way that helps the White House and the Republican brand.

--For the media to start treating him with respect (again).

--For the media to start treating him with affection (again).

Stuff he can control (sort of):

--To have some of his own, big presidential moments before the conventions.

--To give a grand, soulful, expectations-defying acceptance speech in St. Paul (a la George H.W. Bush in 1988).

--To learn to drive the same message for more than a day.

--To remember that Americans want an upbeat president.

--To start sounding sharp, crisp and confident about his agenda and his qualifications, to stop sounding so wishy-washy about his platform, and to stop appearing so shook up by Obamamania.

--To stop letting personal animus for Obama and the shape of the media coverage consume  him and his campaign.

--To not bow to the temptation to talk about national security when he is supposed to talk about domestic issues.

--To recognize, accept and cater to the reality (as Rudy Giuliani would say) that most Americans care more about the price at the pump, their mortgages, and their food and health care costs then about McCain's life story, prescience on the surge, or total number of trips made to Iraq.

--To pick a running mate who shakes things up and gets him a second look from voters — but not so out there that the campaign seems desperate or radical.

--To pick a running mate who can serve as a Day-One-ready peer as well as a surrogate.

--To stop making silly errors (like the convoluted and petty reaction to Obama's ostensibly overdue trip to Iraq).

--To stop saying things that make him seem old (unless he is absolutely sure everyone will get the joke).

Note: This is analysis, not advice.