HALPERIN'S TAKE: The North Carolina Primary

NORTH CAROLINA

Obama is favored to win– mostly because African-American voters, many newly
registered by the campaign -- are expected to make up at least 30% of the
state's electorate.  But the terrain is unpredictable.  There has not been a
competitive Democratic primary here in two decades, and recently-arrived
Latinos, Asians, and other non-whites are expected to be part of a
record-shattering turnout.  Doing accurate exit polling is going to be a challenge.

Both candidates can rely on their standard bases of support.  For Obama:
high-income, well-educated voters clustered in suburban and urban areas.
Also, young voters. His campaign is working to enlist college students in
the state's "one stop early vote" program so they can register and cast
their ballots in a single step before Election Day, which overlaps with
final exams at many local schools.

Clinton doesn't have a geographic base as much as a demographic one: the
working-class, white, and older voters who brought her victory in
Pennsylvania.  She will also seek support among the 30% of voters who are
independents, although in many states they have broken for Obama. Because
Indiana is more vital to her chances, Clinton will have to decide how much
time and money to spend here.

Two hot-button jump-ball issues: gas prices and trade.