HALPERIN'S TAKE ON THE DEMOCRATIC RACE

For much of early 2007, Hillary Clinton's weaknesses as a candidate were overstated by the media. After her disastrous Philadelphia debate performance, her peril was overstated. Now the question is, just how strong a frontrunner is she?

Clearly, her biggest vulnerability is Iowa, where she campaigned on Tuesday. History will record it as a watershed day in this nomination fight, when Clinton dropped any pretense of trying to win her party's nomination with a (mostly) positive message. By going after Barack Obama on the experience question by belittling his claim to having a greater sense of people and conditions around the world by virtue of having lived overseas, Clinton began down what in same ways was an inevitable path for her. She cannot win the nomination or the general election in a de facto up-or-down referendum on her. She can only win the way George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 -- by creating a "choice" election in which her opponent is disqualified as an unacceptable alternative. Just as Bush went after Kerry on his greatest weakness (an image as an unsteady flip-flopper), Clinton clearly intends to try to effectively eliminate Obama as unprepared to handle the job of commander in chief and steward of the economy because of a lack of traditional experience.  Of course, Clinton chose to change course only after it became clear in the last few weeks that Obama and her other Democratic rivals intended to keep up their relentless (and sometimes personal) attacks on her.

Obama told The Page Tuesday night that he is "tough" and can handle Clinton's onslaught, and his campaign team (on the road with the candidate and in Chicago) seems elated by her attacks. They say she has abandoned her strategy of staying above the fray out of necessity, because of falling poll numbers, and that she has begun a spiral from which she will not recover.

To borrow Donald Rumsfeld's cadence and style:

Is Hillary Clinton still the frontrunner for the nomination? Yes.

Is she a weaker frontrunner today than she was a month ago? Yes.

Do we know how much weaker? No, we do not.

As they say on cable TV: only time will tell.

Make no mistake, however: we now have on our hands two very competitive presidential nomination battles.