HALPERIN'S TAKE ON OUTSIDE GROUPS AND IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE

Subtract holidays, weekends, and debate days, and there really aren't a lot of openings left for candidates and outside groups to drive messages with paid media campaigns before Iowa and New Hampshire. The long-expected push by unions, 527s, and other entities to impact both nomination fights through TV and radio ads, phone banking, flyers, door knocking, and other voter communication efforts have not begun in earnest yet, and/but time grows short.

A survey of campaign strategists and other informed parties yields a few data points -- word that AFSCME (which has endorsed Hillary Clinton) has started reserving television time in Iowa in December, and the suggestion that one of Iowa's top political operatives (who endorsed John Edwards a few months ago) is helping to plan the efforts of SEIU to boost Edwards in the Hawkeye State.

But mostly the campaigns claim ignorance of what might be done on their behalf or against their opponents. Of course, legally in most cases it would be improper for campaigns to coordinate with such outside efforts, so their ignorance (if not as absolute as they claim) is certainly blissful.

So enjoy your Thanksgiving, while everyone holds their collective breath, waiting to see who goes first -- particularly with a negative television ad that could fundamentally change a race -- by destroying its intended target, or boomeranging back into the face of the candidate it was intended to help.