7:55 a.m. E.T.

At this point, even if Mitch McConnell wants to lead a last-second deal, it might not be possible. But his backing is certainly a necessary condition.

One of the biggest factors right now: the momentum and pressure for a compromise from cliff-adverse CEOs has dissipated. With the exception of the Gentleman from Starbucks, most other business shoguns are off on holiday, not focused on the Beltway. Republican leaders aren’t facing too much deal-or-no-deal cross currents now.