9:35 a.m. E.T.

1. Those who think going over the cliff is bad are in a tough position because the Gang of 500 is surprisingly open to the notion that markets won’t panic if that happens.
2. The most important thing to remember about White House-Hill budget negotiations is that a deal among the leaders and the President won’t necessarily have the votes to pass the House.
3. Read #2 above again.
4. There is no deal President Obama would sign that would get more House Republican votes than House Democratic votes. That is true as both a matter of policy and politics.
5. Don’t make Christmas or New Year’s plans.