7:40 a.m. E.T.
My “Morning Joe” deconstruction of what the Gang of 500 is thinking Thursday morning:
WILLIE GEIST: The President, again, has leads in all these swing states, margin of error leads in some places. What do you see here?
MARK HALPERIN: I’m going to take a risk here and peel back the curtain to tell you what insiders are thinking. This is not my opinion and this is not a projection of who’s going to win but insiders in both parties look at the last few days of swing state polls and say, “The President may have this.” Doesn’t mean he does but that’s what a lot of people in both parties are saying. Republicans will cite some of the things Mike [Allen] just said. They say the polls are oversampling Democrats, that Romney’s doing better with independents than he is in the polls in general. That how could the national polls, some of which show Romney ahead or even, be so different than the swing state polls? And there are some other polls in these swing states that show Romney closer or ahead. Right now, there’s a danger for Governor Romney that elites are starting to think, in the last 24 hours, that these leads are, as the Obama campaign has said for a long time, small but persistent and consistent. And, I think, it may not effect the coverage that much but there’s a bit of a tipping point here. Romney needs to go into the weekend, for his own sake, with the race tied in the conventional wisdom rather than what some people are now thinking, that these polls suggest the President will win this with the Electoral College dominance that he’s had.
Watch the video above.