Don’t Really Know

5:15 p.m. E.T.

Reasons to think Barack Obama will win:

  • He still has leads in many battleground state polls, including the more reputable Ohio ones.
  • As long as he keeps Ohio, he retains his long-standing Electoral College edge.
  • He’s near or at 50% in some polls.
  • The combination of sophisticated data, state-of-the-art software and hardware, and an army of boots on the ground to identify and seek out votes.
  • The apparent confidence Chicago has about the nine battlegrounds — especially Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
  • The more skillful candidate.
  • Improved economic data and right-track sentiment.

Reasons to think Mitt Romney will win:

  • The overall trend in the national horserace and some state polls.
  • Dominance of the white vote.
  • Obama is at or below 47% in some polls.
  • Improved fav/unfav and standing with voters on the economy.
  • Discipline in driving the “why would four more years be any better?” message.
Related Topics: Barack Obama, Electoral College, Mark Halperin, Mitt Romney, nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, 2012 Elections, Analysis, The Page

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