5:15 p.m. E.T.

Reasons to think Barack Obama will win:

• He still has leads in many battleground state polls, including the more reputable Ohio ones.
• As long as he keeps Ohio, he retains his long-standing Electoral College edge.
• He’s near or at 50% in some polls.
• The combination of sophisticated data, state-of-the-art software and hardware, and an army of boots on the ground to identify and seek out votes.
• The apparent confidence Chicago has about the nine battlegrounds — especially Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
• The more skillful candidate.
• Improved economic data and right-track sentiment.

Reasons to think Mitt Romney will win:

• The overall trend in the national horserace and some state polls.
• Dominance of the white vote.
• Obama is at or below 47% in some polls.
• Improved fav/unfav and standing with voters on the economy.
• Discipline in driving the “why would four more years be any better?” message.