5:15 p.m. E.T.
Reasons to think Barack Obama will win:
- He still has leads in many battleground state polls, including the more reputable Ohio ones.
- As long as he keeps Ohio, he retains his long-standing Electoral College edge.
- He’s near or at 50% in some polls.
- The combination of sophisticated data, state-of-the-art software and hardware, and an army of boots on the ground to identify and seek out votes.
- The apparent confidence Chicago has about the nine battlegrounds — especially Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
- The more skillful candidate.
- Improved economic data and right-track sentiment.
Reasons to think Mitt Romney will win:
- The overall trend in the national horserace and some state polls.
- Dominance of the white vote.
- Obama is at or below 47% in some polls.
- Improved fav/unfav and standing with voters on the economy.
- Discipline in driving the “why would four more years be any better?” message.