8:35 am ET
Make no mistake, the President still has a major and vital advantage in the Electoral College. For Mitt Romney to win, he is going to need to triumph in states where he is now behind and even some local Republicans say victory seems a reach.
Given recent state public and private polling, it is worth asking: Can Romney get to 270 without winning Ohio or Virginia, two states previously thought of as must-wins, but where Obama seems to have a solid lead.
Here’s what I said on “Morning Joe” about a possible path:
“Well, it’s possible. And, again, I’m not saying this is a likely outcome and I’m not saying — and it involves a lot of states where he’s currently behind. But if you accept the premise that Michigan and Pennsylvania are not going to come into play, and that Ohio and Virginia, if you look at the public polling and, as you said, talk to Republicans, that those are very tough states for him right now, there is a way to get to exactly 270 without Ohio and Virginia. It involves winning, out west, Nevada, Colorado.… Look, he’d have to win, basically, five states where he’s currently down: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado. If he won those and he held North Carolina and all the McCain states, that gets him to exactly 270. I’ll say, again, he’s behind. He’s got to win states he’s behind. But if — one must ask the question; can he win without Ohio and Virginia? And the answer is yes, he barely can but it does involve coming back in some other places.“
Watch the video above.
Again, this no-margin-of-error route requires Romney to mount comebacks in a lot of states where he is currently behind.
Here’s a bigger version of this scenario map for you to look at.
Update: As I should have made clear, this path involves Romney flipping Florida, a state Obama (not McCain) won in 2008 — and no sure thing for the Republicans this year by any means.