4:50 pm ET

Note to giddy Democrats and fretting Republicans:

• Mitt Romney has lost the vast majority of news cycles in the last thirty days.
• If the President slips up and has a week-long turn in the barrel, the race will look and feel a lot different than it does now.
• Currently, the floor of support under Obama is a huge factor in this contest; if Romney puts together a winning streak, the ceiling keeping down the incumbent’s support will become more important.