So, pre-SCOTUS, more polling reinforcing the macro Obama-Romney narrative.
Look at these three battlegrounders from NBC News-Marist:
NH: Obama 45 — Romney 45
MI: Obama 47 — Romney 43
NC: Obama 46 — Romney 44
The Obamans’ theory of the case remains: as we’ve done already, we can drive up Romney’s negatives even more, using Bain/Ryan/Swiss/flip-flips/car elevator to make him an unacceptable alternative, then use our superior get-out-the-vote machinery to squeak past him over the finish line.
The Romneyites’ theory of the case: Obama isn’t at or near 50% in these state polls and he will never get there in many of them. Our vice presidential pick, convention, and debate and TV advertising message will all be about Obama being a failed, liberal, incompetent president.
The health care decision, whatever it is, won’t change those basic strategies.