’12 Fundamentals

So, pre-SCOTUS, more polling reinforcing the macro Obama-Romney narrative.

Look at these three battlegrounders from NBC News-Marist:

NH: Obama 45Romney 45

MI: Obama 47Romney 43

NC: Obama 46Romney 44

The Obamans’ theory of the case remains: as we’ve done already, we can drive up Romney’s negatives even more, using Bain/Ryan/Swiss/flip-flips/car elevator to make him an unacceptable alternative, then use our superior get-out-the-vote machinery to squeak past him over the finish line.

The Romneyites’ theory of the case: Obama isn’t at or near 50% in these state polls and he will never get there in many of them. Our vice presidential pick, convention, and debate and TV advertising message will all be about Obama being a failed, liberal, incompetent president.

The health care decision, whatever it is, won’t change those basic strategies.

Related Topics: Barack Obama, Boston, chicago, Marist College, Mark Halperin, Mitt Romney, NBC News, 2012 Elections, Democratic Party, News, Polls, Republican Party, The Page, White House

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