Some possible ACA fallout to consider in advance of the ruling:
- If one or more of the five Republican justices rule in favor of the mandate, they will be scorned by the right for a very long time — maybe literally forever. And I’m talking about more than talk radio. That would be a quite heavy burden to carry.
- Regardless of how the ruling comes out, expect to see some major TV ad buys playing off of it in a big hurry.
- If it is a fuzzy verdict, Republicans are likely to find a more unified position more quickly than Democrats, particularly if the ruling strikes down the mandate but upholds all or most of the rest of the law (in part because Democrats are divided on whether the law is workable without the mandate).
- Democrats will have a great peg to talk about two aspects of the law that they don’t speak about much these days (cost control and the moral rightness of universal access); watch to see if they take the moment.
- Chicago and the White House haven’t played the Romneycare –>Obamacare card lately, but they might renew that line starting Thursday.
- Reaction that will get less attention than Obama’s and Romney’s but will be well worth watching for: the insurance industry, governors, the AMA, hospitals, Bill Clinton, Peter Orszag, Larry Summers.