New Week, Same Argument

(Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
(Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Boston blasts out Wednesday morning memo making the inevitability/math case.

Romney political director Rich Beeson: “Tuesday’s results actually increased Governor Romney’s delegate lead, while his opponents only moved closer to their date of mathematical elimination.”

Read the memo below.

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Rich Beeson, Political Director
SUBJECT: Romney’s Pro-Growth Message Rallies Republicans
DATE: March 14, 2012

While Rick Santorum is taking a victory lap after Alabama and Mississippi, the fact remains that nothing has changed or advanced his chances of getting the Republican nomination.

Tuesday’s results actually increased Governor Romney’s delegate lead, while his opponents only moved closer to their date of mathematical elimination. Governor Romney now leads in delegates over Senator Santorum by a two-to-one margin – with at least 511 delegates to Senator Santorum’s 256 delegates. Speaker Gingrich has 138 delegates.

The math is simple. Governor Romney gained at least 41 delegates with his victories in Hawaii and American Samoa, and strong percentages of the vote in Mississippi and Alabama. Last night’s results give him 50% of all the delegates awarded to date and 45% of the delegates needed to clinch the nomination. He has twice the number of delegates as Senator Santorum and has received over one million votes more than Santorum in the GOP primary contests to date.

Further, despite Senator Santorum’s wins last night, Governor Romney has received more votes in Southern contests than Senator Santorum, even without counting Virginia, where Santorum’s team failed to qualify for the ballot. Governor Romney has also won more delegates in the South to date than either Senator Santorum or Speaker Gingrich.

Santorum and Gingrich now trail Governor Romney by margins they cannot mathematically make up. Senator Santorum is 255 delegates behind Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich is 373 delegates behind. In order to win, both Santorum and Gingrich need to start netting an impossible number of delegates to overtake Governor Romney.

In the contests since Super Tuesday, Governor Romney won at least 80 delegates, Senator Santorum won 70 and Speaker Gingrich won 24; a net of –10 for Santorum and –56 for Speaker Gingrich. What does this mean? To put it simply, the past week has been yet another missed opportunity for them to close the gap. Instead of closing the gap, they watched the gap grow.

Currently, of all the remaining delegates, Senator Santorum must win 69% and Speaker Gingrich must win 78% to reach the 1,144 delegates necessary to win. Their track records demonstrate why this is impossible– so far, Senator Santorum has won only 26% of the delegates awarded and Speaker Gingrich has won only 14%. In addition, with only four upcoming contests (Utah, New Jersey, DC, and Delaware) truly “winner take all,” there are limited opportunities to post large delegate gains.

So, despite Santorum wins over the last few days in Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi, Governor Romney’s wins over the same period in Wyoming, the Northern Marianas, Guam, the US Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and American Samoa have helped expand his delegate lead, pushing him closer to the nomination.

Related Topics: Mitt Romney, 2012 Elections, News, Republican Party, The Page

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