Gamed Out

1. Even if the House can pass Boehner, it can't pass the Senate.
2. Reid as written can't get a majority of the majority in the House.
3. In an open vote, Reid would have a better chance of passing the House (with lots of Democratic votes) than Boehner does of passing the Senate. But that is a virtually meaningless point right now.

4. As of now, nothing can get a majority of House Republicans that Reid would be for.
5. Any grand bargain or plan with new revenue is currently dead.
6. As smart commentators on the left and right are now saying, the current terms of debate are almost completely being held on Republican turf -- and yet Republicans are not moving off their position at all.
7. So the first question is (assuming Democrats don't give in even more), will Boehner and Cantor, who say default is not an option, push for compromise before 8/2 or after 8/2?
8. And the second question is, will a majority of House Republicans support ANY deal supported by Cantor/Boehner/Obama/Reid/Hoyer?