State of Play, Still Edition

Obama/Boehner still want $3 trillion grand bargain.

Boehner still needs Cantor by his side to make a deal.

Obama still can't take for granted the support of Reid and Hoyer.

It still will probably take a market crash to get enough House Republicans willing to compromise.

The fuzzy deadline of back timing from 8/2 is still killing the chance for progress.

Pelosi and Bachmann are still almost sure things to vote against any compromise.

There is still insufficient trust between the White House and Republican congressional leaders to pull a pact off.

Bill Daley is still the smartest personnel choice Obama has made if he wants a grand bargain (and he does).

The politics of a small deal are still no easier than for a big deal.

A default is still possible.