Halperin's Take

Pay attention, people! Romney isn't skipping Ames as a prelude (necessarily) to skipping the Iowa caucuses. Nothing good could happen to him in the straw poll. Best case: he could spend a lot and win it (but, the press wouldn't care, because he won it last time). Worst case: he spends a lot and loses it, risking his frontrunner status. Bypassing Ames preserves his possum strategy, allowing him to continue to have a fine chance to win in the real contest that matters early next year. Right now, THE most plausible scenario for the GOP nomination involves Romney winning both Iowa and New Hampshire and effectively wrapping up the nod in just over a week. That will be true until and unless Tim Pawlenty shows he can raise at least $20 million and/or Jon Huntsman proves he is a real candidate and/or one of the long-shot candidates catches fire in the Hawkeye State. Lock-solid prediction: in the end, Romney will pay no price with either the media or Iowa Republicans for skipping Ames. It is one of his boldest (and best) possum moves yet. And if the new year is dawning and Iowa looks like it won't turn out well for him, he can go Huntsman's route and skip the caucuses too -- with very little political cost. If things look winnable then, he can jump in with ready money and steal a victory.