The Big Questions: GOP ’12 After Huckabee/Trump

Mark Halperin answers the big questions for the week:

With Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee out, what is the current condition of the GOP battle?

Anarchic. The true contenders break down into three pairs: embattled heavyweights Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, ill-defined welterweights Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman and potential superstars Mitch Daniels and Sarah Palin. Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum can scuff up (or knock out) one of the real contenders, but neither can win the crown. Romney reasserted his dominance with a one-day fundraising haul of over $10 million, while Gingrich pulled a classic Newt, raising questions about his conservative bona fides and jaw control by embracing an Obaman individual mandate for health insurance and calling the House Republicans’ Medicare proposals “radical.”

Which voters are up for grabs with a field like this?

Several core GOP constituencies are in danger of being orphaned. Tea Partyers, voters with incomes below $100,000 and religious and social conservatives all don’t see a natural consensus choice. Huckabee and Trump were strong contestants for those groups; if Palin jumps in, she could draw powerfully from all three. Senior Republicans foresee a huge problem if left unsolved, including in a general election.

What are the next shoes to drop?

Daniels is being pressed by party elders to get in - and soon. If he is a no-go, they may try to coax into the race another reluctant titan, like New Jersey’s Chris Christie. Then the question of fundraising prowess will come to the fore, as candidates demonstrate whether they can keep pace with Romney. Few - maybe no one - will. The most pressure will be on Gingrich - he needs some good news to avoid the dead-man-walking stench.