LA Times/USC survey shows likely voters prefer Dem 52-39.
Meanwhile: Boxer holds 50-42 lead over Fiorina.
Conducted Oct. 13-20, error margin 3.2 points.
* The Times/USC “likely” voter universe does NOT look like ’06 exit model.
* The Times/USC “likely” voter universe is +2 higher on women and -2 points lower
on men than ’06 exit model.
* The poll implies that Democrats will have a net +5 bigger advantage in turnout based on Party ID
than they did in ’06 – despite the documented enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans.
* If you look in the tabs, among those who voted in the ’06 election, the ballot is tied
at 45/46, as it has been in nearly every public poll in this race over the last week.
Just like their poll earlier this fall, today’s Los Angeles Times poll, conducted by a Democrat polling firm, assumes a completely irrational turnout mix. Additionally, it’s aged. That’s fine for cheese and wine, but not polls.
The Times poll obliterates the model from the last mid-term election and skews significantly toward a Democrat wave-like ‘08 turnout model. Specifically, The Times is assuming a +5% Democrat tilt over the ’06 mid-term turnout. Obviously any rational observer and pollster would find that ignorant of what is occurring with the electorate.
Additionally, The Times poll was in the field from 10/13-18; before a discernable Whitman uptick in other polls. In other words, it’s old, statistically flawed, and in no way a current snapshot of the race.
“Statistically, given the clear average of multiple public and private polls fielded in a similar time frame, The LA Times poll should be categorized as an outlier poll and can be dismissed as simply inaccurate,” said Whitman pollster John McLaughlin. Dr. David Hill, also a Whitman campaign pollster, agreed with that assessment.
We are certain this race is extremely close, and we are confident of our position to close this campaign with a historic result a week from Tuesday that will give California its first woman governor.